Sunday, 22 November 2009

One Poll Does Not A Hung Parliament Bring

A Mori poll in the Observer today has shrunk the Tory lead to just 6%, with a poll rating of just 37%. Andrew Rawnsley and others have seized on this as signs of a hung parliament at the next election. With the huge swing the Tories need to get an overall majority, that is not without its merits. However, with many months left before the election, I remain to be convinced. For a hung parliament, we will certainly need to see a strengthening of support for the Labour government, which is certainly not evident in Spelthorne. The voters that gave them a clutch of seats in the late 90's have long deserted them, ans recent election results show them to be dead in the water. So I remain sceptical of the prospects of a hung parliament at the moment, until we have more than a single poll as evidence. What I am sure of, is that the election in Spelthorne will be a straight fight between the Tories and the Lib Dems. Labour can't win here.

No comments: